Arthur Hayes explains the impact of interest rate cuts: the yen against the US dollar exchange rate is key, and the market may plummet after the interest rate cut
Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, stated at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, may collapse within a few days after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut.
Cutting interest rates is a bad idea
Arthur Hayes explained in an interview with CoinDesk during the Token2049 conference that the upcoming interest rate cut will exacerbate inflation issues and lead to a strengthening of the Japanese yen (JPY), thereby triggering widespread risk aversion sentiment.
Cutting interest rates is a bad idea because inflation still exists in the United States, and the government is the main driver of price pressure. If borrowing costs are reduced, this will exacerbate inflation. The second reason is that cutting interest rates will narrow the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan, which could lead to a sharp appreciation of the yen and trigger the end of yen arbitrage trading
The market had already felt the destructive impact of the strengthening of the yen and the subsequent lifting of yen arbitrage trading in early August this year, when the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark lending rate from 0 to 0.25%. Bitcoin fell from approximately $64000 to $50000 within a week.
Arthur Hayes emphasized that the short-term "USD/JPY exchange rate" is the only important indicator.
Most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates in the coming months, while the Federal Reserve will take the opposite path (cutting interest rates). This policy divergence means that the yen may further strengthen, forcing investors to liquidate risky assets financed by yen denominated loans.
Arthur Hayes predicts that US interest rates will fall from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5% to near zero levels.
The initial market reaction will be negative, and the central bank's response will be to further cut interest rates to contain the crisis. So I think cutting interest rates is a bad idea, but they will still do it and it will soon drop to zero
Does Ethereum have a chance to reverse its decline?
Approaching zero interest rates means that investors may once again seek other profit opportunities, thereby bringing renewed attention to areas in the cryptocurrency market that can generate returns, such as Ethereum, Ethena's USDe, and Pendle's Bitcoin staking.
Ethereum (ETH) currently offers an annualized 4% staking yield, which will benefit in an ultra-low interest rate environment. Ethena's USDe uses Bitcoin and Ethereum as supporting assets, combined with equivalent perpetual futures short positions to generate returns, while decentralized financial platform Pendle's Bitcoin staking offered floating returns of up to 45% last week, all of which will benefit from the low interest rate environment. At the same time, the market demand for token treasury bond and other products affected by interest rates may weaken.
(责任编辑:市场数据)
-
还有第三类人,这类用户非常“友好”,通常选择在线支付,也不拒收,也不邮砖,而是在穿到质保期前,拿着电吹风对着1000多元的鞋吹半个小时,直到鞋底开胶,再要求退货。...[详细]
-
10月31日摩根均衡优选混合C净值下跌0.38%,近1个月累计下跌1.02%
相信在谈到“你幸福吗?”这个话题时,不少人脑海中浮现的是: 赵传在《沉默的羔羊》中声嘶力竭地唱着: 幸福对我来说,其实是一种传说! 人一直在追求幸福,路漫漫其修远兮,...[详细]
-
去年直播刚刚兴起时,就被指为“无聊经济”崛起的标志。...[详细]
-
10月31日博时研究回报混合A净值下跌1.48%,近6个月累计下跌5.84%
万能的某宝是可以买号的,前期各平台在扩张没有太严格要求。...[详细]
-
媒体行业大概分为三种内容生产方式。...[详细]
-
TOP6:SKII《她最后去了相亲角》女性话题营销 张锐(时趣互动CEO):大胆完美的抓住了社会焦虑与产品的结合点,创造了营销拉动销售量50%增长的奇迹。...[详细]
-
二、网站底部巧用灰色设计模式 网站颜色字体一般都是黑色,如果使用灰色极易导致字体无法辨认。...[详细]
-
2015.11.26 新增5V5地图“火焰山大战”,新增5V5赛制“赏金联赛”,新增双人排位。...[详细]
-
这样我们就打破了当地贸易公司的垄断,因为传统的贸易公司基本上都是在靠资金流,提供高利贷等方式赚钱。...[详细]
-
可是如此神奇的产品,在国家食品药品监督管理总局网站上却查不到任何相关信息。...[详细]